obrien.vision

UK Higher Education Projections 2026-2035

Published on February 15, 2026 • Built with HTML, Chart.js, Tailwind CSS

UK Higher Education Projections

2026 – 2035

Executive Summary

This dashboard models the "triple threat" facing UK universities: a demographic cliff for domestic students (Chart 1), inflationary erosion of teaching income (Chart 2), and a "stagnation trap" in research funding (Chart 3).

New: Chart 4 illustrates the high-stakes volatility of International Student Income. This stream is now the primary cross-subsidy for research but faces existential risks from UK visa policy (dependants ban, proposed levies) and global competition (Canada/Australia caps).

1. Domestic Demographics

Volume Index

Projected 18-year-old population demand. A "demographic bulge" peaks in 2030 before a sharp 7% decline.

2. Teaching Income

Nominal Income

Projected tuition fee income (indexed). Even with inflation-linked rises, uncertainty over RPI creates a widening revenue gap.

3. Research Income

Real Terms

Government grants rise slowly to 2030, but lack of private diversification risks a long-term real-terms decline.

4. International Income

Real Terms

High Volatility: The "High" scenario assumes UK gains from Canada/Aus caps. The "Low" scenario models the impact of a proposed International Student Levy and visa restrictions.

Data Sources & Assumptions

  • Chart 1 (ONS/HEPI): Tracks the 18-year-old population curve. Peak 2030, fall to 2035.
  • Chart 2 (OBR/DfE): Nominal income assuming fees track RPI. Uncertainty wedge based on 1.5% vs 4.5% inflation variance.
  • Chart 3 (DSIT/UKRI): Real terms projection. Central forecast assumes government spending review commitments are met to 2030, then flatline.
  • Chart 4 (British Council/QS/UUK): Real terms. High: UK captures "displaced demand" from Canada/Aus caps (approx 3% annual growth). Low: Implementation of 6% "International Student Levy" + visa tightening creates structural decline.
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