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UK Higher Education Projections 2026-2035

Published on February 15, 2026 • Built with HTML, Chart.js, Tailwind CSS

UK Higher Education Projections

2026 – 2035

This dashboard illustrates the projected "demographic wave" facing UK universities and its financial implications across teaching and research. The number of 18-year-olds in the UK—the primary driver of undergraduate enrolment—is forecast to rise until 2030 before entering a sharp decline. Simultaneously, financial pressures are mounting. While tuition fee income (Chart 2) is indexed to inflation, the real-terms purchasing power of research income (Chart 3) faces a "stagnation trap" where government increases barely offset the lack of diversification in other funding streams.

1. The Demographic Wave

Projected relative undergraduate student numbers (indexed, 2026 = 100). Demand is expected to peak in 2030 due to a population bulge, followed by a decline of approximately 7% by 2035.

2. Financial Outlook (Nominal Income)

Projected total tuition fee income indexed to 2026 levels. The central line assumes fees rise with OBR central RPI forecasts (~2.5%). The shaded area represents the margin of error (uncertainty), ranging from low inflation (1.5%) to high inflation (4.5%).

3. Relative Research Income

Projected real-terms research income (indexed, 2026 = 100). The central forecast assumes committed government spending rises (UKRI budgets) until 2030, but non-government sources (charity, industry) remain flat due to lack of diversification. The shaded area reflects the risk of high inflation eroding the fixed cash settlements (Low Scenario) vs. a potential "crowding in" of private investment (High Scenario).

Data Sources & Methodology

  • Demographics: Based on ONS 18-year-old population projections and HEPI analysis showing a peak in 2030 followed by a decline to 2035 levels similar to 2026.
  • Financials (Teaching): Assumes a base tuition fee rising annually by RPI. The "Uncertainty Wedge" calculates cumulative compounding differences between low (1.5%) and high (4.5%) RPI scenarios.
  • Research Income: Central forecast derived from DSIT allocations (rising to ~£10bn/year by 2030) and TRAC data indicating a 66% cost recovery rate. The model assumes "flat cash" for non-governmental sources in the absence of new university-led initiatives.

This visualisation is for illustrative planning purposes.

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