UK Higher Education Projections 2026-2035

Demographics: Based on ONS 18-year-old population projections and HEPI analysis showing a peak in 2030 followed by a decline to 2035 levels similar to 2026.
Financials: Assumes a base tuition fee rising annually by RPI. The "Uncertainty Wedge" calculates cumulative compounding differences between low (1.5%) and high (4.5%) RPI scenarios.

Published on February 15, 2026 • Built with HTML, Chart.js, Tailwind CSS

UK Higher Education Projections

2026 – 2035

This dashboard illustrates the projected "demographic wave" facing UK universities and its financial implications. The number of 18-year-olds in the UK—the primary driver of undergraduate enrolment—is forecast to rise until 2030 before entering a sharp decline. Simultaneously, with tuition fees set to rise with inflation (RPI), nominal income appears robust, but high economic uncertainty creates a widening "margin of error" for real-terms university planning.

1. The Demographic Wave

Projected relative undergraduate student numbers (indexed, 2026 = 100). Demand is expected to peak in 2030 due to a population bulge, followed by a decline of approximately 7% by 2035.

2. Financial Outlook (Nominal Income)

Projected total tuition fee income indexed to 2026 levels. The central line assumes fees rise with OBR central RPI forecasts (~2.5%). The shaded area represents the margin of error (uncertainty), ranging from low inflation (1.5%) to high inflation (4.5%).

← Back to Visualizations