UK HE Financial Sustainability Model 2026-2035
Sector Financial Sustainability Model
Consolidated Projections 2026 – 2035
Scenario: Central Forecasts (Midline)
Base: 2026 = 100 (Balanced Budget Assumption)
1. Projected Income Composition
Stacked breakdown of Nominal Income. Assumes domestic fees track RPI (2.8%) and TNE grows at 4%. Note the shrinking proportion of Domestic Fees (Blue) post-2030.
2. Projected Cost Composition
Stacked breakdown of Nominal Costs. Staffing (Red) remains the dominant cost, compounding at ~3% annually. Estates (Orange) widens after 2028 due to Net Zero capital requirements.
3. Sector Financial Health (Surplus/Deficit)
The delta between Total Income (Solid Line) and Total Expenditure (Dashed Line). Green zones indicate surplus; Red zones indicate deficit. The model shows a "squeeze" around 2030-2032 as the demographic cliff hits while inflation costs persist.