UK University Expenditure Projections 2026-2035

Published on February 15, 2026 • Built with HTML, Chart.js, Tailwind CSS

University Cost Pressures

Expenditure Forecasts 2026 – 2035 (Index 2026 = 100)

This dashboard models the relative growth in operating costs for UK universities. Projections account for the recent rise in Employer National Insurance, the "Net Zero" retrofit burden, and persistent "techflation" in administrative services.
Shaded areas indicate the margin of uncertainty between high and low cost scenarios.

1. Workforce (Staff & Pensions)

High Impact

Accounts for ~55-60% of total expenditure. Driven by wage settlements, NI hikes, and volatile pension valuations (USS/TPS).

2. Estates & Energy

High Volatility

Energy prices have stabilised but remain high. The major driver post-2028 is the capital cost of decarbonising ageing campuses (Net Zero).

3. Digital & Admin Services

Structural Inflation

"Techflation": Software licensing (often USD-pegged), cybersecurity insurance, and AI integration costs outpacing CPI.

4. Financing & Capital Cost

Variable Risk

Cost of servicing debt. Low scenario assumes interest rate cuts; High scenario assumes refinancing 'cliffs' for existing bond/loans.

← Back to Visualizations