Expenditure Forecasts 2026 – 2035 (Index 2026 = 100)
This dashboard models the relative growth in operating costs for UK universities.
Projections account for the recent rise in Employer National Insurance, the "Net Zero" retrofit burden, and persistent "techflation" in administrative services.
Shaded areas indicate the margin of uncertainty between high and low cost scenarios.
Accounts for ~55-60% of total expenditure. Driven by wage settlements, NI hikes, and volatile pension valuations (USS/TPS).
Energy prices have stabilised but remain high. The major driver post-2028 is the capital cost of decarbonising ageing campuses (Net Zero).
"Techflation": Software licensing (often USD-pegged), cybersecurity insurance, and AI integration costs outpacing CPI.
Cost of servicing debt. Low scenario assumes interest rate cuts; High scenario assumes refinancing 'cliffs' for existing bond/loans.